Monday, November 24, 2025

 

CLOSING SPEECH OF THE CONFERENCE 

in two languages: Portuguese and English 


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ALOCUÇÃO DE ENCERRAMENTO DA

CONFERÊNCIA EUROPEIA E CIDADÃ PELA PAZ NA UCRÂNIA, RÚSSIA E EUROPA



Raul Luís Cunha

(major-general [r] do Exército português, historiador)

Raul Luís Cunha durante a sua alocução


Caros Amigos,

Verificamos que, hoje em dia e finalmente, se começa a formar uma sólida opinião que as ações da UE e do Reino Unido (além das que, por vezes, emanam dos EUA), destinadas a fomentar tensões com a Rússia, constituem afinal um enorme erro.

No entanto, também podemos constatar que uma das características do nosso tempo é que, quem tenta começar a discutir sobre as realidades da situação entre a Rússia e o dito Ocidente alargado, é imediatamente apelidado de traidor. De facto e em concreto, no dito Ocidente perdeu-se a capacidade de reconhecer as realidades.

Não se trata de uma questão de alguém ser pró-Rússia ou pró-Ucrânia ou pró-guerra, mas sim de ser pró-verdade e sensatez porque, na ausência de entendimento, na ausência de alguma solução diplomática, ou pelo menos da vontade política de encontrar uma, haverá apenas mais morte e destruição.

Quando se continua a inexoravelmente fomentar uma guerra permanente, a eventualmente escalá-la até um limite que pode acabar por nos destruir a todos, ou simplesmente a promover um conflito congelado que irá continuar a consumir vidas humanas e as parcas riquezas da Europa numa conflagração eterna. Isso constitui, sim, uma verdadeira loucura. E se puder ser parada, assim deverá ser. É um imperativo moral. É um dever de nós todos.

Os políticos ocidentais não percebem que as aspirações pela paz são um dever não para consigo mesmos, mas para com as suas nações e para com o seu futuro, para com os seus filhos e para com o mundo que se irá formar em resultado das suas decisões.

O dito Ocidente precisa de reconhecer que as nações não são todas iguais, têm o seu próprio interesse nacional e, de facto, há uma esfera nacional de influência ou existem responsabilidades estratégicas que implicam a necessidade de defender as suas áreas de interesse, nomeadamente nas regiões que lhes são adjacentes. O não reconhecimento do interesse nacional de outras nações pode provocar um enorme custo em vidas humanas e uma desestabilização económica generalizada, que acaba por levar aos problemas com que hoje nos confrontamos.

Assim, e como iniciativa de todos os cidadãos lúcidos do dito Ocidente e dos seus líderes que, eventualmente, readquiram alguma lucidez, deverá ser, de imediato e sem condições prévias, promovida a concretização de um Acordo de Paz compreensivo que contenha, no mínimo, as seguintes  propostas dos promotores desta conferência e que passo a descrever:

Constituição de uma Comissão de Verdade e Reconciliação, à semelhança do que foi feito na África do Sul do pós-apartheid e em Timor-Leste depois da independência [1].

Os julgamentos por crimes de guerra deverão ser organizados pelos respectivos Estados [2].

A neutralidade militar permanente da Ucrânia será consagrada na sua Constituição, bem como a renúncia da Ucrânia ao ingresso na OTAN.

Garantias legais de que a Ucrânia não permitirá o fabrico, o recebimento, o trânsito ou o destacamento de armas nucleares e outras armas de destruição em massa no seu território.

Garantias legais de que a Ucrânia e a Rússia não permitirão o estabelecimento de bases militares ou a presença de contingentes militares estrangeiros nos seus respectivos territórios.

Reconhecimento do direito à autodeterminação nas suas diversas formas (autonomia regional, federalismo, secessão, integração voluntária em outro país) para a população da Crimeia e as populações das regiões leste e sul da Ucrânia que se sintam mais russas do que ucranianas e que expressarem livremente a sua vontade por meio de referendos.

Garantias legais para a proteção da língua russa como língua cooficial da Ucrânia e dos direitos culturais (incluindo a liberdade religiosa) dos ucranianos de língua russa, bem como dos direitos culturais dos ucranianos que falam línguas minoritárias (por exemplo, húngaro e romeno).

Fim de todas as sanções proibição de transmissão de veículos de comunicação na UE; proibições de visto e viagens na UE, área Schengen, Reino Unido e Irlanda; congelamento de bens; restrições económicas de importação e exportação.

Para terminar, reafirma-se a necessidade de levar a cabo uma verdadeira e concreta reavaliação das realidades para que possamos sair desta presente crise.

Assim, o comité organizador desta Conferência, informalmente conhecido como Os Quatro Mosqueteiros pela Paz, assumirá  a responsabilidade de redigir uma Declaração formal. Para maior clareza e facilidade de consulta, esse documento será oficialmente intitulado Declaração da Conferência Europeia e Cidadã para a Paz na Ucrânia, Rússia e Europa.


Os Quatro Mosqueteiros pela Paz  (o comité  organizador da conferência). Na tribuna, Raul Luís Cunha (Major General, historiador). Na mesa, da esquerda para a direita; Luís Alfaro Cardoso (Investigador principal e professor do ensino superior universitário, médico veterinário); José Catarino Soares (Professor coordenador do ensino superior politécnico, linguista); José Aranda da Silva (Coronel, farmacêutico). 


Essa Declaração descreverá de forma abrangente as medidas inicialmente especificadas no documento fundador da Conferência. Será dada ênfase às ações, que destaquei e que foram identificadas como sendo as de maior prioridade e urgência. 

A Declaração será enriquecida pelas diversas contribuições feitas pelos participantes antes, durante e depois da conferência, garantindo que as perspetivas e sugestões compartilhadas sejam devidamente incorporadas.

Pensamos que o trabalho desta Conferência deverá continuar para além desta sessão. Se o desenrolar dos acontecimentos inerentes ao conflito não trouxerem o ambicionado Acordo de Paz que, de certo modo, se começa a vislumbrar, assumimos desde já o compromisso de convocar uma segunda Conferência em Lisboa, no mesmo local. Essa mesma Conferência será organizada de acordo com a Declaração que vamos agora emitir, a qual será divulgada por toda a Europa com a assistência de todos os seus signatários. O objetivo dessa eventual segunda Conferência será analisar e avaliar os progressos atingidos em direção à paz durante o período decorrido, tentando assim manter o impulso e fomentando um diálogo contínuo.

Vamos acreditar que a lucidez voltará, que a sanidade vencerá e que a real vontade de concretizar um projeto de paz duradoura irá aparecer, antes que a escalada de incongruências, contradições e medidas belicistas, fomentada por desmedidas ambições políticas, acabe por nos arrastar a todos para o abismo.

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NOTAS EDITORIAIS

[1] Esta comissão independente poderia começar a fazer o seu trabalho imediatamente após a assinatura do Acordo de Paz ‒ ouvindo as queixas (de todos os lados) de violação dos direitos humanos desde 2014 ‒ independentemente dos processos de investigação forense conducentes aos julgamentos dos crimes de guerra, que serão necessariamente muito morosos

[2] Os julgamentos de crimes de guerra alegadamente russos por tribunais russos; os julgamentos de crimes de guerra alegadamente ucranianos por tribunais ucranianos, conforme sugeriu o eminente jurista Alfred-Maurice de Zayas.

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CLOSING ADDRESS OF THE 

EUROPEAN AND CITIZENS' CONFERENCE FOR PEACE IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND EUROPE

By

Raul Luís Cunha

(major general  [rtd] of the Portuguese Army, historian)


Raul Luís Cunha during his address


Dear Friends,

We have acknowledged that, nowadays and finally, a solid opinion is beginning to build that the actions of the EU and the United Kingdom (in addition to those that sometimes emanate from the USA), aimed at fomenting tensions with Russia, are ultimately a huge mistake.

However, we can also see that one of the characteristics of our time is that anyone who tries to start discussing the realities of the situation between Russia and the so-called greater West is immediately labeled a traitor. In fact, and specifically, the so-called West has lost the capacity to recognize realities.

This is not about being pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine or pro-war, but rather about being pro-truth and common sense because, in the absence of understanding, in the absence of some diplomatic solution, or at least the political will to find one, there will only be more death and destruction.

When one continues inexorably to foment a permanent war, eventually escalating it to a point that could end up destroying us all, or simply promoting a frozen conflict that will continue to consume human lives and the meager riches of Europe in an eternal conflagration. That is, indeed, true madness. And if it can be stopped, it must be. It is a moral imperative. It is a duty for all of us.

Western politicians do not realize that aspirations for peace are a duty not to themselves, but to their nations and to their future, to their children and to the world that will be formed as a result of their decisions.

The so-called West needs to recognize that nations are not all the same, that they have their own national interests, and that, in fact, there is a national sphere of influence or strategic responsibilities that imply the need to defend their areas of interest, particularly in the regions adjacent to them. Failure to recognize the national interests of other nations can cause huge costs in human lives and widespread economic destabilization, ultimately leading to the problems we face today.

Thus, and as an initiative of all lucid citizens of the so-called West and their leaders who may eventually regain some lucidity, the realization of a comprehensive Peace Agreement should be promoted immediately and without preconditions, containing, at a minimum, the following proposals from the promoters of this conference, which I will now describe:

● Establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, similar to what was done in post-apartheid South Africa and in East Timor after independence [1]

Trials for war crimes should be organized by the respective States [2].

Ukraine's permanent military neutrality will be enshrined in its Constitution, as well as Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership.

Legal guarantees that Ukraine will not allow the manufacture, receipt, transit, or deployment of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction on its territory.

Legal guarantees that Ukraine and Russia will not allow the establishment of military bases or the presence of foreign military contingents on their respective territories.

Recognition of the right to self-determination in its various forms (regional autonomy, federalism, secession, voluntary integration into another country) for the population of Crimea and the populations of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine who feel more Russian than Ukrainian and who freely express their will through referendums.

Legal guarantees for the protection of the Russian language as a co-official language of Ukraine and the cultural rights (including religious freedom) of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, as well as the cultural rights of Ukrainians who speak minority languages ​​(e.g., Hungarian and Romanian).

End of all sanctions — the ban on broadcasting by media outlets in the EU; the visa and travel bans in the EU, Schengen area, United Kingdom and Ireland; the assets freezes; the economic restrictions on import and export.

Finally, the need for a genuine and concrete reassessment of realities so that we can emerge from this current crisis is reaffirmed. Thus, the organizing committee of this Conference, informally known as The Four Musketeers for Peace, will assume the responsibility of drafting a formal Declaration. For greater clarity and ease of consultation, this document will be officially titled the Declaration of the European and Citizens’ Conference for Peace in Ukraine, Russia and Europe.

The Four Musketeers for Peace (the conference organising committee). On the podium, Raul Luís Cunha (Major General, historian). At the table, from left to right: Luís Alfaro Cardoso (Principal researcher and university professor, veterinary doctor); José Catarino Soares (Coordinating professor of polytechnic higher education, linguist); José Aranda da Silva (Colonel, pharmacist).


This Declaration will comprehensively describe the measures initially specified in the founding document of the Conference. Emphasis will be placed on the actions I have highlighted, and which have been identified as being of highest priority and urgency.

The Declaration will be enriched by the various contributions made by participants before, during, and after the conference, ensuring that the perspectives and suggestions shared are duly incorporated.

We think that the work of this Conference should continue beyond this session. If the unfolding of events inherent to the conflict does not bring about the desired Peace Agreement that, in a way, is now beginning to emerge, we hereby commit to convening a second Conference in Lisbon, at the same venue. This same Conference will be organized in accordance with the Declaration that we are now going to issue, which will be disseminated throughout Europe with the assistance of all its signatories. The objective of this eventual second Conference will be to analyze and evaluate the progress achieved towards peace during the elapsed period, thus attempting to maintain momentum and fostering continuous dialogue.

Let us believe that lucidity will return, that sanity will prevail, and that the genuine desire for bringing out a lasting peace project will emerge, before the escalation of inconsistencies, contradictions, and belligerent measures, fueled by excessive political ambitions, ends up dragging us all into the abyss.

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Editorial Notes

[1] This independent commission could begin its work immediately after the signing of the Peace Agreement – hearing complaints (from all sides) of human rights violations since 2014 – independently of the forensic investigation processes leading to war crimes trials, which will necessarily be very lengthy.

[2] Trials for alleged Russian war crimes by Russian courts; trials for alleged Ukrainian war crimes by Ukrainian courts, as suggested by the eminent jurist Alfred-Maurice de Zayas,  

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

 

Press Release [*]

in three languages :

Portuguese, English, and French






COMUNICADO DE IMPRENSA


É já no próximo sábado, dia 22 de Novembro, que decorrerá em Lisboa a Conferência Europeia e Cidadã pela Paz na Ucrânia, Rússia e Europa — um evento “de cidadãos, organizado por cidadãos, para cidadãos” que conta com inúmeros convidados de renome, nacionais e internacionais que, entre as 9h30 e as 19h, se vão reunir num Auditório em Lisboa.

Um grupo de cidadãos portugueses comuns, que se auto intitula como “Os Quatro Mosqueteiros pela Paz” organizou o Programa deste encontro que visa apresentar e discutir medidas, receber e debater propostas para a construção de uma Paz duradoura na Ucrânia, na Rússia e na Europa que, nunca tanto como agora, esteve à beira de uma Guerra mundial.

Uma das muitas propostas dos promotores da conferência é a da constituição de uma “Comissão de Verdade e Reconciliação”, à semelhança do que foi feito na África do Sul do pós-apartheid e em Timor-Leste depois da independência. Esta comissão independente poderia começar a fazer o seu trabalho imediatamente após a assinatura de um Acordo de Paz, ouvindo as queixas (de todos os lados) de violação dos direitos humanos desde 2014 — independentemente dos processos de investigação forense conducentes aos julgamentos dos crimes de guerra, que serão necessariamente muito morosos.

Outros temas que vão estar sobre a mesa e que poderão ser objecto de propostas serão referentes, por exemplo, a julgamentos por crimes de guerra; neutralidade militar permanente da Ucrânia;  proibição do fabrico, trânsito e posicionamento de armas nucleares e de bases militares e o fim de todas as sanções.

Mais de uma dezena de oradores, de várias nacionalidades e grupos profissionais, dão ainda mais peso e maior importância a esta iniciativa imperdível, que conta já com um amplo apoio internacional e dos Média. Além dos especialistas portugueses, alguns deles conhecidos, estarão outros nomes sonantes da Alemanha, França, Suécia, Bélgica, Reino Unido, Noruega, Suíça e Irlanda, vindos propositadamente para este debate.

Professores do ensino superior (universitário e politécnico), politólogos, oficiais das Forças Armadas, conselheiros de estratégia internacional, diplomatas, médicos, jornalistas, linguistas, escritores de não ficção, investigadores, historiadores, artistas (incluindo músicos, poetas e encenadores) são alguns dos profissionais que fazem parte da panóplia de um qualificado elenco de palestrantes, com ideias que vale mesmo a pena ouvir.

Aos interessados em assistir a esta Conferência, basta-lhes enviar a sua inscrição para:

u8189072106@gmail.com

com indicação do nome, profissão, email, e modo como tiveram conhecimento do evento, estando condicionado o acesso à lotação da sala. Receberão de volta a confirmação ou não do seu pedido de inscrição.

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[*] Este press release [comunicado de imprensa] foi redigido, graciosamente,  por uma jornalista profissional (a quem agradecemos a disponibilidade e a generosidade) a pedido da Comissão Organizadora da Conferência. Por razões de segurança, editámos, aqui, muito ligeiramente, o original que foi distribuído aos orgãos mediáticos de comunicação social. Abaixo, estão publicadas a sua tradução inglesa e francesa. 

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Press Release

 

The European and Citizens’ Conference for Peace in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe will be held in Lisbon on Saturday, November 22. This event, “by citizens, organized by citizens, for citizens,” will convene distinguished national and international guests from 9:30 am to 7 pm at an auditorium in Lisbon.

A group of Portuguese citizens, known as The Four Musketeers for Peace, has curated the program, which is designed to present, discuss, and evaluate measures and proposals aimed at building lasting peace in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe. The urgency of this issue is underscored by the current proximity to global conflict.

Among the initiatives proposed by the conference organizers is the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, modelled after those implemented in post-apartheid South Africa and in East Timor following independence. This independent body would begin its work immediately upon the signing of a peace agreement, considering reports of human rights violations by all parties since 2014, independently of any ongoing forensic investigations related to war crimes trials, which are anticipated to be protracted.

Additional topics open for discussion include War Crimes Trials, Ukraine’s status as a permanently neutral state, the prohibition of the manufacture, transit, and deployment of nuclear weapons, military bases, and the termination of all sanctions.

The conference features more than a dozen speakers representing a broad range of nationalities and professions, adding significant depth and credibility to the initiative, which has already garnered substantial international and media support. Participants include prominent experts from Portugal, as well as invited guests from Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Ireland.

The roster of speakers encompasses university professors, political scientists, military officers, international strategy advisors, diplomats, physicians, journalists, linguists, non-fiction authors, researchers, historians, and artists—including musicians, poets, and directors — offering a comprehensive array of expertise and perspectives.

Those wishing to attend the Conference are invited to register by emailing:

u8189072106@gmail.com

Please include your name, profession, email address, and how you learned about the event. Admission will be subject to venue capacity, and confirmation of registration will be provided upon review.

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[*] This press release was prepared by a professional journalist (whose availability and generosity are greatly appreciated) at the request of the Conference Organizing Committee. For security reasons, minor edits have been made to the original version circulated to the media.

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Communiqué de presse

 

La Conférence européenne et citoyenne pour la paix en Ukraine, en Russie et en Europe se tiendra à Lisbonne le samedi 22 novembre 2025. Cet événement, « organisé par des citoyens, pour les citoyens », réunira des invités nationaux et internationaux de 9h30 à 19h dans un auditorium à Lisbonne.

Un groupe de citoyens portugais, désigné sous l’appellation Les Quatre Mousquetaires pour la Paix, a conçu ce programme dans le but de présenter, débattre et évaluer des mesures et propositions pour instaurer une paix durable en Ukraine, en Russie et en Europe. L’urgence du sujet est accentuée par l’escalade actuelle des tensions mondiales.

Parmi les initiatives proposées figure la création d’une Commission indépendante de vérité et réconciliation, s’inspirant notamment des modèles appliqués en Afrique du Sud postapartheid et au Timor oriental après l’indépendance. Cette commission débuterait ses travaux dès la signature d’un accord de paix et procéderait à l’examen des signalements de violations des droits humains impliquant toutes les parties depuis 2014, indépendamment des investigations médico-légales liées aux procès pour crimes de guerre dont la durée serait prolongée.

Les discussions porteront également sur les procédures judiciaires relatives aux crimes de guerre, le statut de l’Ukraine en tant qu’État neutre permanent, ainsi que sur l’interdiction de la fabrication, du transit et du déploiement d’armes nucléaires et de bases militaires, et la levée des sanctions.

La conférence accueillera plus d’une douzaine d’intervenants issus de diverses nationalités et domaines professionnels, apportant une expertise reconnue à cette initiative soutenue à l’échelle internationale et relayée par plusieurs médias. Parmi les intervenants figurent des spécialistes du Portugal, ainsi que des invités originaires d’Allemagne, de France, de Suède, de Belgique, du Royaume-Uni, de Norvège, de Suisse et d’Irlande.

La liste des promoteurs et d’intervenants comprend des universitaires, politologues, officiers militaires, conseillers en stratégie internationale, diplomates, médecins, journalistes, linguistes, auteurs, chercheurs, historiens et artistes — dont des musiciens, poètes et réalisateurs — garantissant la représentativité et la diversité des points de vue.

Pour participer à la conférence, il est demandé de s’inscrire par courrier électronique à l’adresse suivante :

u8189072106@gmail.com

Veuillez indiquer votre nom, profession, adresse e-mail et préciser comment vous avez été informé de l’événement. L’admission dépendra de la capacité d’accueil du lieu et une confirmation d’inscription sera envoyée après examen.

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[*] Ce communiqué de presse a été rédigé par une journaliste professionnelle (dont la disponibilité et la générosité sont grandement appréciées) à la demande du Comité d’Organisation de la Conférence. Pour des raisons de sécurité, quelques ajustements mineurs ont été apportés à la version originale transmise aux médias


Saturday, November 15, 2025

 

Key Messages (2) 

to the European and Citizens’ Conference 

for Peace in Ukraine, Russia and Europe 



Introduction

Professor Jean Bricmont is among the 62 founding signatories who initiated the call for the European and Citizens’ Conference for Peace in Ukraine, Russia and Europe. This event is scheduled to be held on 22 November 2025 in Lisbon and aims to address pressing issues concerning peace and conflict in the region.

Messages to Conference Participants and Readers

Although Jean Bricmont is unable to attend the conference in person, he remains committed to the cause and the objectives of the gathering. To ensure his thoughts and perspectives contribute to the ongoing discussions, he has sent a written statement to the participants. His text as well as those by Pascal Lottaz and Robert Skidelsky, already published on this site [see https://citizenpeaceineurope2025.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-european-and-citizens-conference.html] ⎼ serves as his active contribution, providing insight and fostering dialogue among attendees and readers.


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IS WORLD WAR III

ALREADY GOING ON?

Jean Bricmont

15 November 2025


When did World War II start?

If you ask the Chinese, they will say in 1937, with the Japanese invasion or even in 1931 with the annexation of Manchuria. But in Europe? In 1936 in Spain, in 1938 with the annexation of Austria and the Sudetenland, in 1939 in Poland, in 1940 with the German invasion of the rest of Europe or in 1941 with the onslaught against the Soviet Union that led to the final defeat of the Nazis?

The beginning of World War II was an ongoing process. But one may argue that we are facing a similar process now, which may later be considered as being the beginning of World War III.

We have three major actors in this proto-war: the United States and its “allies” (its satellites would be a better term), Russia-China and its allies and Israel.

The US “allies” include most of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and parts of Latin America (Argentina, Equator etc.). The Russia-China allies include Iran, North Korea, Vietnam, parts of Africa (mostly the Alliance of Sahel States: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso), and parts of Latin America (mostly Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua).

The goal of the United States is to maintain its world domination which it thought would be eternal, or at least very long, after the fall of the USSR. The Russia-China alliance challenges that hegemony both militarily in Ukraine, where Russia was dragged into a long war by US provocations, and economically by China who is slowly but surely becoming the dominant economic superpower.

Europe and the other United States “allies” are simply going along with whatever the United States does, totally disregarding  their own national interests: they apply endless sanctions to Russia that mostly hurt their own economies and lecture China on human rights, lectures that fall on deaf ears (understandably so, given the long colonial relations between Europe and China). When the Netherlands thought it was clever to seize a Chinese company (the chipmaker company Nexperia), at the instigation of the United States, it had quickly to backtrack and to give it back to China. For the first time, after a mere five centuries, it is a country of the South that imposes its will on one of the North.

It is remarkable that, although most Europeans do not like Trump, because of his manners and his rather explicit way to want to impose the United States will on the rest of the world (including on Europe), not much has changed in their submissiveness with respect to the United States since his election.

The Russia-China alliance tries to gather the Global South against the hegemon, with some degree of success; in fact countries of the Global South do not necessarily like the present-day Russia but see it as the successor of the USSR and, whatever they think of the political-economic system of that country, they remember the firm Soviet support for decolonization and the national sovereignty of countries attacked by the United States [1]. It is somewhat ironical that, while the Russian leadership tend to reject its Soviet past, it is largely thanks to that past that it maintains its influence abroad. As for China, it may be less revolutionary and less vocal than at the time of Mao, but its diplomacy has always been firmly on the side of the Third World and against American supremacy.

There is a third actor: Israel. Contrary to what many people believe Israel is not an outpost of the West or even of the United States in the Middle East. It does exactly what it wants, namely make Palestine a “land without a people”, in order to “redeem” it for its own population. For that, it needs to regularly bomb, invade and kill people all around the Middle East. That serves no purpose whatsoever for American hegemony, never brought a drop of oil to the United States and in fact creates a lot of hostility worldwide towards the United States because of the latter unflinching support for Israeli policies. And the way this support is obtained is simply through the actions of the pro-Israel lobby in the United States (and elsewhere in the West). Congress is essentially bought by it and dissident voices are silenced under the accusation of antisemitism.

So, what is the situation now in the multi-front proto-war?

In Ukraine, Russia is winning slowly but probably irreversibly. This creates great concerns in Natoland, whose countries however do not dare send their armies fight the Russians directly and, instead, send loads of weapons and money that, so far, have been strategically useless, although they led many Ukrainians (and Russians in lesser numbers) to their death.

In the China-US conflict, there are a great deal of American gestures about Taiwan and the South China sea but, so far, nothing dramatic happened. China is very patient and expects that Taiwan will eventually become effectively (and not only legally, which it is already) part of China. Just wait and see.

Israel has won some victories, against Hamas and Hezbollah but, given the relationship of forces, the mere survival of these organizations (and they did survive) is already a victory for them. The biggest Israeli victory has been the regime change in Syria. As with all the submissive Arab regimes, it remains to be seen how long this submission will last.

The main problem for Israel is the revulsion that its policies have provoked throughout the world, even in its main benefactor, the United States. There, not only the progressive youth is revolting against zionism, as shown by the election of Mamdani as mayor of New York, but there is also a split in the MAGA movement with people like Tucker Carlson (or more radical ones like Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens) insisting that MAGA means America First and not MIGA or Israel First. That double revolt, from the left and from the right, does not bode well for the future of the United States support for their "only ally in the Middle East", which, in reality, isn’t their ally at all.

In fact, the main purpose of the present cease-fire (which is mainly interpreted by the Israelis as “you cease, we fire”), together with massive efforts at censorship (extensive buying of US media by pro-Israel billionaires) is to prevent anti-Israel sentiments from rising even further.

What should the anti-war movement do?

It depends a little bit on where one lives, but for Europeans it is quite clear:

First of all, be as independent as possible from the United States, irrespective of whether its administration is democrat or republican. And that means being as independent as possible from the European Union, whose bureaucratic apparatus is committed to an endless subservience to the United States. The goal would be to develop relations with the rest of the world based on our own interests and not on those of the United States.

  Concerning the Middle East, cut all ties with Israel, and defend our freedom of speech about that state and its supporters here. In particular, we should reject the legal condemnation of “hate speech” as another word for censorship.


Unfortunately, our leaders are very far from following that course and they hardly face any organized political opposition. What we see is an incessant deluge of war propaganda against Russia, China, Iran or Palestine. We are even told that we must engage in a massive military buildup in order be ready for war with Russia in a few years. 

But why? Are we seriously thinking of attacking Russia and risk our own nuclear annihilation? Do we really fear an attack of Russia against a NATO country? But why would they do that? Unlike in Ukraine, there is no NATO country with millions of people fighting for several years against a central government originating from a coup d'état, sponsored by the United States, and deeply hostile to them. Indeed, as shown in part by their pro-2014 votes, the Eastern Ukrainians have always felt Russian and were incorporated into Ukraine at the time of the formation of the Soviet Union (1922), without anybody asking them what they wanted. Whether one thinks that this justifies the Russian intervention or not, the fact is that there is no remotely similar situation elsewhere in Europe.

There is also no doubt that the European populations (as opposed to most of their leaders) are massively opposed to the notion of a war with Russia. But even if there is no real reason for a war between NATO and Russia to occur, the combination of military buildup and war propaganda may lead to an accident, like what happened in Sarajevo in 1914.

And therefore, it is vital to change course if we do not want the present situation as being viewed in the history books of the future as the beginning of World War III. Assuming that there will be such books.


 On August 9, 1945, the American B-29 bomber, Bocks Car, left Tinian carrying Fat Man, a plutonium implosion-type bomb. The primary target was the Kokura Arsenal at Nagasaki, but upon reaching the target, they found that it was covered by a heavy ground haze and smoke, pilot Charles Sweeney turned to the secondary target of the Mitsubishi Torpedo Plant at Nagasaki. Of the 286,00 people living in Nagasaki at the time of the blast, 74,000 were killed and another 75,000 sustained severe injuries. Source: National Archives USA. [Photo and caption added by the Editor of this Conference site]

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Note

[1] See for example htps://www.rosbalt.ru/news/2025-11-07/gleb-kuznetsov-rf-nikak-ne-mozhet-prisvoit-sovetskoe-nasledie-5503301


Friday, November 14, 2025

Programa da 

 Conferência Europeia e Cidadã

para a Paz na Ucrânia, Rússia e Europa

Lisboa, 22 de Novembro de 2025



A) Programa e ordem de trabalhos

Ponto 1Boas-vindas e agradecimentos: José Catarino Soares (Portugal). Das 9h30 às 9h40 (+ 5 minutos para a entidade responsável pelo local da Conferência poder usar da palavra).

Ponto 2Alocução de abertura: Luís Alfaro Cardoso (Portugal). Das 9h45 às 10h.

Ponto 3Testemunhos da guerra e da vida quotidiana na Donbass. Das 10h às 12h30, com uma pausa para café às 11h15.

Cinco oradores: Guy Mettan (Suíça), Christelle Néant (França), Benoît Paré (França), Jean-Christophe Emmeneger (Suíça), Patrick Baab (Alemanha). Moderador: Luís M. Loureiro (Portugal).  

Almoço12h30-14h30.

Ponto 4Narrativas e realidade da guerra na Ucrânia e na Rússia. Das 14h30 às 16h10, com uma pausa para café às 16h10.

Quatro oradores: Jacques Hogard (França), Alastair Renfrew (Inglaterra, Reino Unido), Geoffrey Roberts (Irlanda), Michel Collon (Bélgica). Moderador: José Catarino Soares (Portugal).

Ponto 5Iniciativas de promoção da paz para a Ucrânia,  Rússia e Europa. Das 16h30 às 18h50.

Cinco oradores: Isabelle Casel (Alemanha), Hakan Julander (Suécia), Ian Proud (Inglaterra, Reino Unido), Robert Skidelsky (Inglaterra, Reino Unido), Carlos Branco (Portugal). Moderador: José Aranda da Silva (Portugal).

Ponto 6. Alocução de encerramentoRaul Luís Cunha (Portugal). Das 18h50-19h

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B) Intervenções dos oradores previstos

As intervenções dos oradores previstos para os pontos 3, 4 e 5 do programa da conferência têm a duração de 15 minutos, seguidos de 10 minutos para perguntas e respostas. Toda a conferência será videogravada, para divulgação ulterior.

C) Outras intervenções

A Comissão Organizadora da Conferência pediu a duas pessoas que preparassem intervenções que substituíssem as de oradores previstos que se vissem, à última hora, impossibilitados de participar na conferência. Agradecemos a esses nossos especiais convidados  Rui Pereira e Sófia Smirnov  a gentileza de terem aceitado o nosso convite e o esforço que fizeram para o satisfazer. O conteúdo das suas intervenções será publicado no sítiowww da Conferência, após a sua realização.

D)  Acesso à Conferência

O acesso à Conferência está exclusivamente reservado aos 62 subscritores iniciais da sua convocatória e aos seus convidados nominais.

Os interessados que, entretanto, desejarem subscrever o texto da convocatória (publicado neste blogue [ver arquivo do blogue]) podem fazê-lo enviando as seguintes informações:

·       Nome

·       Profissão (+ 2 ou 3 descritores no máximo)

·       Morada

·       Endereço electrónico 

·        para o seguinte endereço de e-mail: u8189072106@gmail.com

A morada e o endereço electrónico fornecidos para a subscrição do texto não serão divulgados, garantindo a confidencialidade dos dados pessoais dos participantes. As pessoas que, além dos signatários iniciais, vierem a subscrever a convocatória para a Conferência ficam automaticamente inscritas para nela participarem e receberão uma mensagem indicando-lhes o local onde ela vai ser realizada. 

Além e independentemente da subscrição do texto da convocatória, é possível manifestar interesse em participar na conferência, que será atendida se a lotação do recinto que acolhe a conferência o permitir. A inscrição para participar na conferência (NOME, PROFISSÃO, ENDEREÇO ELECTRÓNICO) deve ser enviada para o endereço electrónico já indicado mais acima: u8189072106@gmail.com 

A comissão organizadora da Conferência irá gerir as inscrições de acordo com a lotação disponível, para garantir o conforto e segurança de todos os participantes.

A Comissão Organizadora da Conferência (por ordem alfabética do apelido)


Luís Alfaro Cardoso (investigador e professor do ensino superior universitário)

Raul Luís Cunha (major-general do Exército português)

José Aranda da Silva (coronel do Exército português)

José Catarino Soares (professor coordenador do ensino superior politécnico)

Thursday, November 6, 2025

 

Key Messages (1) 

to the European and Citizens’ Conference 

for Peace in Ukraine, Russia ande Europe 





Introduction

Professor Pascal Lottaz and professor Robert Skidelsky have both endorsed the forthcoming European and Citizens' Conference for Peace in Ukraine, Russia and Europe, which is scheduled to take place in Lisbon on 22 November 2025.

Messages to Conference Participants and Readers

Both Lottaz and Skidelsky have shared important communications intended for all participants of the Conference—where Robert Skidelsky will address the audience as a speaker—as well as for readers of this blog.

Their message and speech, respectively, are disclosed below to inform and inspire those involved in the pursuit of peace across Europe, Ukraine and Russia.

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My short message to everyone is as follows:

«Europe is currently marching straight ahead into another general calamity, making enemies with Russia, China, and the entire Global South. Working toward peace and a change of the European narrative has never been more important than now. It is not too late to bring the continent back from the brink of the abyss, but we need action and we need it now. I congratulate everyone at this event for their active role and leadership in bringing about the narrative change to save us from ourselves»

Pascal Lottaz, November 4, 2025


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My speech in the House of Lords on Ukraine - 31st of October 

«My Lords, I do not know whether it is a punishment or a privilege to be put last in the list of Back-Bench speakers, as I invariably am when it comes to a debate on Ukraine. The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, was powerful and eloquent in opening, and it is clear that my noble friend Lord Barrow is going to be a great addition to our collective wisdom.

Two factors have upended the policy of successive British Governments: the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, and the unexpected economic and military resilience of Russia. Until the end of last year, the agreed policy, as stated by then incoming Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, was that

the British Government must leave the Kremlin with no doubt that it will support Kyiv for as long as it takes to achieve victory. Once Ukraine has prevailed, the United Kingdom should play a leading role in securing Ukraine’s place in NATO”.

I have heard this formula endlessly in the last three or four years. Can the noble Baroness tell us whether this is still the policy of the British Government? If not, why not? That policy, to my way of thinking, was always dishonest and in fact, morally repugnant, since we were never going to give Ukraine all it takes for victory, for the very good reason that any such policy carried an unacceptable risk of escalation. I am really worried by the insouciance of those noble Lords speaking today who talk about unleashing long-range missile attacks on the most heavily armed nuclear power in the world.

Now, after nearly four years of false pledges cashed in the lives of hundreds of thousands, we have reluctantly accepted that there is not going to be a Ukrainian Toggle showing location of victory anytime soon, and in fact, there is a very real prospect of Ukrainian defeat, as the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat, pointed out. The real question now is, how can the coalition of the willing prevent this outcome? First came the suggestion that we would send in NATO peacekeepers to police a ceasefire, but our Government must have known that this would never be accepted. It would not be accepted by Russia and would not be accepted by the United States, which was supposed to provide a backstop. Can the noble Baroness tell us whether this obvious spoiling tactic is still on the table?

The latest plan is the so-called European Peace Facility, whose aim is to strengthen Ukraine’s war facility, a classic case of Orwellian “doublespeak”. The idea is that Europe should ramp up arms deliveries to Ukraine and put more pressure on Russia with new sanctions on oil exports, with loans coming from confiscated Russian assets. But no one thinking straight can believe that such measures, even if agreed and applied, will affect the course of the war in time to avert further territorial losses by Ukraine. In fact, a negotiated peace is the only way now of averting a Russian victory. That is my core position.

I want to be constructive, so I will suggest three ways in which our Government could help achieve a negotiated settlement. First, they should propose a demilitarised zone under a UN peacekeeping force to police a ceasefire. I am not nearly as pessimistic about the prospects of a ceasefire as some noble Lords have been—I remind the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, that the armed pause of the Cold War lasted 50 years. China must also be brought into such an endeavour. It can exert much more leverage over Russia than we can. Trump seems to realise this, but all we seem able to do is talk about Chinese spies and underground tunnels. China is the missing piece in this whole process.

Secondly, we should start talking to Russian officials. Do not leave all the talking to the United States. To get a conversation going, we have to ignore the ICC arrest warrants, which in any case could be enforced only by a complete Russian defeat. Thirdly, we should urge UN-organised referenda in the four contested oblasts to allow the people who live there to decide democratically on their own future. Holding such referenda would offer both sides a credible and democratic pathway to end the conflict. Through initiatives of this kind, our Government could still turn a war mission into a peace mission. I beg Ministers to discover the courage to negotiate, for reasons of both realism and humanity.»

Robert Skidelsky, 5 November 2025